There are two green revolutions underway in the world at present - the one named for the color of the opposition in Iran and the environmental one. Their trajectories represent a study in contrasts.
The Green Revolution in Iran, starting shortly after the rigged election in June has continued nearly unabated since that time. This has occurred despite brutal repression including imprisonment and execution. Leaders have gone into hiding and the spiritual leader, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has died, and yet, the fight goes on. The media has been completed suppressed yet the people continue to get images to the world. The government can only hold power through brute force, yet the people continue to take to the rooftops at night and the streets by day, sensing that now is the time.
The other Green Revolution, that of the environmental one, could not be more different. The world summit in Copenhagen ended with a whimper. The general public seems less concerned with the issue than even a few years ago. Lip service is paid in all quarters to the need to respond to the challenges of climate change. Little is being done with the exception of propaganda efforts by big polluters to convince the world there is nothing to worry about. At night, we light up the sky flashing advertising to interstates while by day we burn fossil fuels for convenience sake. This green revolution is dying for lack of warriors.
The people of Iran will be able to look back to this time with pride in a period when they did all they could to change their world. The people of the world will look back to this as a time when we did nothing to save or even help our environment.
Two very different revolutions indeed.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Ignorance Based Fear and the Denial of Reality
We've had another attempt to blow up an airplane, this time by a 23-year-old Nigerian named Umar Farouk Abdulmuttallab. He used the same type of explosives as that carried by the attempted shoe bomber Richard Reid. Common features: both men were fanatics and neither of the attacks worked.
Herein lies essential base of al-Qaeda (which translates to "the base"). It has thousands of loyal recruits who are willing to lay down their lives for their cause. In fact, their life circumstances make them ill suited for anything but cannon fodder. Those with any education, military training or political power quickly become leaders within the movement. These leaders, conveniently for them, are too "important" to sacrifice themselves. This by default leaves, by and large, an uneducated and unsophisticated group to actually carry out attacks.
It is this reason, the very poor quality of the attackers, that has prevented the majority of attacks. It is not anything done by any security measures, airline procedures, domestic and international spying, or anything else, it is the sheer incompetency of fanatics. It is also a natural function that as continued suicide attacks occur, the pool of attackers gets closer to the bottom of the barrel with each attack. In fact, suicide attacks in general seem to be just from the point of view of strategy, a product of illogical thinking. It wastes the most fanatical soldiers.
Look at the immediate evidence. The best that al-Qaeda can do at present is Richard Reid and Umar Abdulmuttallab. These guys couldn't even detonate explosives with fire. If this really is the best they can do, then their major operational problem is incompetence.
This is not to say that there will not continue to be attacks by misguided fanatics. There are plenty of Mohammed Atta's, and Timothy McVeigh's out there, and some of them will pull it off. By and large though, it is their own fanaticism that is the best ally of everyone in the world.
Balancing out their incompetence is the false sense of security produced by creating an illusion of safety that involves taking away nail clippers and screening your shoes. However, any one who has flown knows the sham that this process has become. Disinterested TSA agents chatting with each other, an over reliance on technology, and a realistic assessment that the likelihood of an attack is low all make for a typical casualness towards the process that makes it resemble a Kabuki theatre.
Now you can expect tighter security for a few weeks, maybe even months, then everything will settle down. That is what the leaders of al-Qaeda will do. Wait for another lull. The reality is that another attack is already being plotted, another apple is being pulled from the bottom, and after that one there will be another and another. Eventually one will get through. No matter how poor the quality of their members and no matter what is done.
It is not uplifting to think or predict that it will happen again, it is just realistic. It is comforting though to note that even the successful plots carried out have been dwarfed in number by those thwarted. It is also something to keep in mind that a more realistic view of those carrying out fanatical attacks is as a mostly incompetent and illogical lot without the ability to do much more than blow themselves up.
Herein lies essential base of al-Qaeda (which translates to "the base"). It has thousands of loyal recruits who are willing to lay down their lives for their cause. In fact, their life circumstances make them ill suited for anything but cannon fodder. Those with any education, military training or political power quickly become leaders within the movement. These leaders, conveniently for them, are too "important" to sacrifice themselves. This by default leaves, by and large, an uneducated and unsophisticated group to actually carry out attacks.
It is this reason, the very poor quality of the attackers, that has prevented the majority of attacks. It is not anything done by any security measures, airline procedures, domestic and international spying, or anything else, it is the sheer incompetency of fanatics. It is also a natural function that as continued suicide attacks occur, the pool of attackers gets closer to the bottom of the barrel with each attack. In fact, suicide attacks in general seem to be just from the point of view of strategy, a product of illogical thinking. It wastes the most fanatical soldiers.
Look at the immediate evidence. The best that al-Qaeda can do at present is Richard Reid and Umar Abdulmuttallab. These guys couldn't even detonate explosives with fire. If this really is the best they can do, then their major operational problem is incompetence.
This is not to say that there will not continue to be attacks by misguided fanatics. There are plenty of Mohammed Atta's, and Timothy McVeigh's out there, and some of them will pull it off. By and large though, it is their own fanaticism that is the best ally of everyone in the world.
Balancing out their incompetence is the false sense of security produced by creating an illusion of safety that involves taking away nail clippers and screening your shoes. However, any one who has flown knows the sham that this process has become. Disinterested TSA agents chatting with each other, an over reliance on technology, and a realistic assessment that the likelihood of an attack is low all make for a typical casualness towards the process that makes it resemble a Kabuki theatre.
Now you can expect tighter security for a few weeks, maybe even months, then everything will settle down. That is what the leaders of al-Qaeda will do. Wait for another lull. The reality is that another attack is already being plotted, another apple is being pulled from the bottom, and after that one there will be another and another. Eventually one will get through. No matter how poor the quality of their members and no matter what is done.
It is not uplifting to think or predict that it will happen again, it is just realistic. It is comforting though to note that even the successful plots carried out have been dwarfed in number by those thwarted. It is also something to keep in mind that a more realistic view of those carrying out fanatical attacks is as a mostly incompetent and illogical lot without the ability to do much more than blow themselves up.
All For Naught: Don't Believe the Hype
Y2K. Ah, back when the world was simple and all we had to worry about was catastrophic shutdown of everything on the planet. Or so we were hyped. Then nothing happened. The good old days.
Then came the election of 2000, featuring the contrast of wooden Al Gore versus good ole boy George W. At least that was the hype, that was the coverage. Overlooked was that one candidate had rigorously prepared himself for the office, and as it turns out, was the man most suited to tackle the continuing task of confronting global warming. The other man was George Bush, the most unprepared candidate for office in memory, possibly history.
The election, mired by more problems than any democracy should tolerate, ended in a vote of 5-4 by the Supreme court. Democracy prevailed, or so was the hype. Problems concerning voting machines, voter disenfranchisement and overt political meddling in the process continues even as we assure that we can produce fair elections in other countries.
On his first day in office, George W. Bush was briefed by Richard Clarke that a Islamic jihad group led by Osama bin Laden was a threat to the U.S. The USS Cole suffered an attack with explosives in Yemen.
September 11, 2001 was a day that changed the world. Everyone bought the hype. Nothing had changed, terrorists had already hit in the U.S. and al-Qaeda was already fully operational. It's leader, bin Laden, we were told would be caught, "Dead or Alive". He was on the run, his operation was in shambles. Or so was the hype.
Fear of continuing attacks was fanned. Two wars began in quick succession. Domestic spying, suspension of the very rights of which underpin our country, phone taps, email interceptions, all followed in rapid succession. We began to abandon our own principles, jailing without trial, creating Guantanamo, justifying torture, all in the name of security. Alert levels became the measure of our fear.
Richard Reid made us all take off our shoes every time we fly. The TSA began confiscating nail clippers and key chains. This was supposed to make us safe. The whole security apparatus of the United States was reorganized.
Christmas Day, 2009 a 23-year-old Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmuttallab, attempted to blow up a flight from Amsterdam as it descended into Detroit. Abdulmuttallab, schooled and radicalized in Britain, had recently traveled to Yemen. His own father, a prominent Nigerian banker, had personally gone to the U.S. embassy and reported that his son had become a radical jihadist.
Muttallab's attack involved the use of an explosive known as PETN, the same as Richard Reid. The new solution has already been proposed - full electronic body scans. Profiling is also being trumpeted as a necessary element in preventing any new attacks. These things will make us safe, we are told.
The last decade has taught us exactly what we should have expected from a decade that began with a zero and an irrational fear of computers crashing: Naught.
Then came the election of 2000, featuring the contrast of wooden Al Gore versus good ole boy George W. At least that was the hype, that was the coverage. Overlooked was that one candidate had rigorously prepared himself for the office, and as it turns out, was the man most suited to tackle the continuing task of confronting global warming. The other man was George Bush, the most unprepared candidate for office in memory, possibly history.
The election, mired by more problems than any democracy should tolerate, ended in a vote of 5-4 by the Supreme court. Democracy prevailed, or so was the hype. Problems concerning voting machines, voter disenfranchisement and overt political meddling in the process continues even as we assure that we can produce fair elections in other countries.
On his first day in office, George W. Bush was briefed by Richard Clarke that a Islamic jihad group led by Osama bin Laden was a threat to the U.S. The USS Cole suffered an attack with explosives in Yemen.
September 11, 2001 was a day that changed the world. Everyone bought the hype. Nothing had changed, terrorists had already hit in the U.S. and al-Qaeda was already fully operational. It's leader, bin Laden, we were told would be caught, "Dead or Alive". He was on the run, his operation was in shambles. Or so was the hype.
Fear of continuing attacks was fanned. Two wars began in quick succession. Domestic spying, suspension of the very rights of which underpin our country, phone taps, email interceptions, all followed in rapid succession. We began to abandon our own principles, jailing without trial, creating Guantanamo, justifying torture, all in the name of security. Alert levels became the measure of our fear.
Richard Reid made us all take off our shoes every time we fly. The TSA began confiscating nail clippers and key chains. This was supposed to make us safe. The whole security apparatus of the United States was reorganized.
Christmas Day, 2009 a 23-year-old Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmuttallab, attempted to blow up a flight from Amsterdam as it descended into Detroit. Abdulmuttallab, schooled and radicalized in Britain, had recently traveled to Yemen. His own father, a prominent Nigerian banker, had personally gone to the U.S. embassy and reported that his son had become a radical jihadist.
Muttallab's attack involved the use of an explosive known as PETN, the same as Richard Reid. The new solution has already been proposed - full electronic body scans. Profiling is also being trumpeted as a necessary element in preventing any new attacks. These things will make us safe, we are told.
The last decade has taught us exactly what we should have expected from a decade that began with a zero and an irrational fear of computers crashing: Naught.
Friday, December 18, 2009
More Important than Polls and Constituents
2009 will be remembered as the year when politicians quit pretending to listen to their constituents and actually stopped paying attention to polls. Instead, they paid attention to who pays for their attention - their contributors.
Sen. Joe Lieberman leads the list as we now know that the (I) that usually follows his name stands for "Insurance Industry," rather than "Independent." Republican'ts as a group stood up for their industry backers and did all they could to kill reform that their constituents overwhelmingly supported.
Of course, there was a different response when the favorite envelope stuffers on Wall Street came begging. Quickly, funds were dispersed, the bail out floundered and the bankers who caused the near catastrophe got even richer, laughing all the way to, well, their place of employment. Bipartisanship flourished in a spirit of politicians having their backers yank their chains like lap dogs.
A special tone deaf award goes to Sen. Max Baucus (D-Montana) (or is it Baccus (X-Sextopia)?) for his shameless attempt to nominate his girlfriend to be a judge. It is true that his girlfriend, Melodee Hanes, who now works at the Justice Department is probably qualified for the post. But to nominate your girlfriend, I guess that Baucus has never heard of avoiding the appearance of impropriety. Who does he think he is - a "C" streeter? But why would he worry about such minor things after selling us all out with his health care negotiations.
The Ironic Honesty award for all of 2009 must go to Sarah Palin. Quitting halfway through her first term so she could "better serve" her constituents, she did so in spite of herself.
Sen. Joe Lieberman leads the list as we now know that the (I) that usually follows his name stands for "Insurance Industry," rather than "Independent." Republican'ts as a group stood up for their industry backers and did all they could to kill reform that their constituents overwhelmingly supported.
Of course, there was a different response when the favorite envelope stuffers on Wall Street came begging. Quickly, funds were dispersed, the bail out floundered and the bankers who caused the near catastrophe got even richer, laughing all the way to, well, their place of employment. Bipartisanship flourished in a spirit of politicians having their backers yank their chains like lap dogs.
A special tone deaf award goes to Sen. Max Baucus (D-Montana) (or is it Baccus (X-Sextopia)?) for his shameless attempt to nominate his girlfriend to be a judge. It is true that his girlfriend, Melodee Hanes, who now works at the Justice Department is probably qualified for the post. But to nominate your girlfriend, I guess that Baucus has never heard of avoiding the appearance of impropriety. Who does he think he is - a "C" streeter? But why would he worry about such minor things after selling us all out with his health care negotiations.
The Ironic Honesty award for all of 2009 must go to Sarah Palin. Quitting halfway through her first term so she could "better serve" her constituents, she did so in spite of herself.
Most Lawless Nation or Twisted Priorities
Nothing is as easy as denouncing an evil doer. Nothing so difficult as understanding him. -Fyodor Dostoyevsky.
The United Nations recently released figures that note that the United States has 100,000 more people incarcerated just for drug offenses than the entire European Union has locked up for ALL crimes. Making this statistic even more striking is the fact that the EU has 100 million more citizens than the U.S.
It should further be noted that the United States has more people incarcerated per capita than any nation that has ever existed including the Soviet Union in the days of Stalin and apartheid South Africa. Add in that we are one of the top ten nations as regards executions and we appear to be particularly lawless.
Is that really the case. No, in fact, it is not that the U.S. is any more lawless we have just chosen to incarcerate as the primary means to deal with our social woes. No money for social services, no money for juvenile delinquency prevention programs, no literacy, no after school care, no education. Certainly, no health care. Just prisons and war.
It's a matter of priorities.
The United Nations recently released figures that note that the United States has 100,000 more people incarcerated just for drug offenses than the entire European Union has locked up for ALL crimes. Making this statistic even more striking is the fact that the EU has 100 million more citizens than the U.S.
It should further be noted that the United States has more people incarcerated per capita than any nation that has ever existed including the Soviet Union in the days of Stalin and apartheid South Africa. Add in that we are one of the top ten nations as regards executions and we appear to be particularly lawless.
Is that really the case. No, in fact, it is not that the U.S. is any more lawless we have just chosen to incarcerate as the primary means to deal with our social woes. No money for social services, no money for juvenile delinquency prevention programs, no literacy, no after school care, no education. Certainly, no health care. Just prisons and war.
It's a matter of priorities.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
In Case You Missed It
In case you missed it among the many news stories tallying Tiger Woods dalliances or climate deniers screaming about stolen emails, a truck load of radioactive waste wrecked somewhere in Nevada last week.
The relative amount of news coverage given to each story shows how out of whack our priorities have become.
If we focused on real news we might see how a few Senators are selling out the nation on health care reform.
The relative amount of news coverage given to each story shows how out of whack our priorities have become.
If we focused on real news we might see how a few Senators are selling out the nation on health care reform.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Ronald Dumbsfeld
The Senate Foreign Relations committee has just released a report in which it is revealed that the military had Osama bin-Laden cornered in Tora Bora in the immediate aftermath of the invasion in 2001. It is also noted that then Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, apparently feared that to capture or kill bin-Laden would produce a backlash. An absurd fear given the backlash that happened anyway.
Of course, the report from the Senate committee provided little information about the facts on the ground, i.e. that bin-laden was cornered. It seemed inevitable at the time that he would be captured. There were even questions about whether he had been killed or not. It only added to his mystique and elevated him to some quasi-hero status to those we most wanted not to follow him. Then suddenly, we didn't "think that much about him," to quote W.
But was it really that Rumsfeld and the rest of the Bush (mis)Administration feared a backlash if they caught bin-Laden. If they had perchance caught him or killed him, again, as seemed inevitable at the time, that might have really disrupted the momentum to invade Iraq. If bin-Laden were gone, the public would have likely been satisfied that 9/11 had been avenged.
Could they really have been this incompetent?
In retrospect it can be seen that Iraq was far more important to the Bush-ites than Afghanistan. Saddam is gone, executed. Most of his inner circle is dead. Osama bin-Laden, Mullah Omar, and others, still in charge.
When satellites can read license plates from space, how do you miss a 6'5' guy on dialysis traveling around in the rural mountains? Answer: You try very hard.
Of course, the report from the Senate committee provided little information about the facts on the ground, i.e. that bin-laden was cornered. It seemed inevitable at the time that he would be captured. There were even questions about whether he had been killed or not. It only added to his mystique and elevated him to some quasi-hero status to those we most wanted not to follow him. Then suddenly, we didn't "think that much about him," to quote W.
But was it really that Rumsfeld and the rest of the Bush (mis)Administration feared a backlash if they caught bin-Laden. If they had perchance caught him or killed him, again, as seemed inevitable at the time, that might have really disrupted the momentum to invade Iraq. If bin-Laden were gone, the public would have likely been satisfied that 9/11 had been avenged.
Could they really have been this incompetent?
In retrospect it can be seen that Iraq was far more important to the Bush-ites than Afghanistan. Saddam is gone, executed. Most of his inner circle is dead. Osama bin-Laden, Mullah Omar, and others, still in charge.
When satellites can read license plates from space, how do you miss a 6'5' guy on dialysis traveling around in the rural mountains? Answer: You try very hard.
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